Rupert Murdoch must be hanging out with Donald Rumsfeld. Today's $65 premium, at $60 a share, for Dow Jones, is an absolute corporate shock-and-awe move. If you want to knock the breath out of the industry, you don't offer a 20% premium, you go high.
The offer, of course, was the first amazement of the day. The second: the DJ offer sent newspaper stocks overall in an uncharacteristic direction: UP.
McClatchy up 2.0%. Gannett, up 1.9%. Lee up 3.8%. New York Times up 6.5%. Washington Post up 2.9. Only Tribune, already spoken for (but with a low $25 million break-up fee in the deal), stayed flat.
The first reaction to the news is plainly a confused one. News Corp isn't offering a 65% premium for newspaper assets. This is a broadcast/digital play for top-branded business/finance content and audience.
Broadcast? Rupert's new baby is the soon-to-be-born Fox Business News Channel. Roger Ailes has trash-talked competitor CNBC, owned by GE. So in part,
News Corp's Dow Jones play is timed to make its business channel launch
highly successul as it tries to upend the CNBC-Wall Street Journal
partnership and become the lead player in global TV business news. Think of all that News Corp distribution power on cable across the known world. Think of the first five channels -- all Fox as I recall -- as you settle into your JetBlue seat.
We've got to distinguish a couple of things here as we look at the differences between DJ and the rest of the news pack.
Number one,
business/finance content, sites and audience are among the
highest-performing in the digital marketplace, while general news
content, sites and audience are hurting.
Number two, the brands
involved -- Wall Street Journal and Barrons, and even Marketwatch
to a degree, have equity. When you combine content, sites, audience and
brands, you have a future proposition far more valuable than the
average newspaper company. Only the New York Times . make a claim, a partial
one though, to similar attributes.
When dawn beckons, expect most newspaper stocks to come back to their recent valuations.
Clearly, it's in part Rich Zannino's recent reorganization of Dow Jones that is responsible for this offer. The reorg
has set Dow Jones on a course to profit from the digital future, and clearly stated that potential. In addition to Rupert's ego and the broadcast synergies, Murdoch likes that direction and thinks Dow Jones is
undervalued today, given its future earnings potential.
Potential. That's an important word here. The Bancroft family its lack of interest, as simultaneously financial analysts say, hey, not so fast.
Potential is also a good word as we look at the future of the business/finance space online. As in all sectors, they'll be two, maybe three, winners, when we look back from 2012. Dow Jones is in the race, as in Bloomberg, Reuters, the New York Times, the Financial Times, and Time Inc. (Ann Moore's heightened the profile of her Fortune, Business 2.0 and Money properties online). Expect competition and roll-up, and it's only fitting Rupert's fired this big shot.
Recent Comments