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  • Available for public speaking around media transformation and opportunity. Please inquire for schedule and rates.

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Press Mentions

  • Ad Age/Nat Ives: It's Back: 25 MORE Media People You Should Follow on Twitter
    25 media types worth following on Twitter.
  • Ad Age: Why So Many Media Companies Stumble Globally
    The few news brands that have succeeded, to greater or lesser degrees, arguably include CNN, Bloomberg, People, Thomson Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times and The Economist. Other contenders are the Associated Press, the BBC, ABC, NBC, maybe CBS, National Public Radio, News Corp. and the top U.K. dailies, said Ken Doctor, the newspaper veteran who's now an analyst at Outsell. "If a news-media organization sees itself as covering the wider world, sees it as its foundation, that in and of itself differentiates it from all the local media -- newspapers, TV, radio -- out there," he said. "If, in addition, it has substantial reporting and editing resources, then it can play. The tough part is the part we're in: Who wins the race to ubiquity and can make it pay off?"
  • NYT: If The Globe Were Sold, What Price?
    “The best guesstimate of the real price: a buck. The best of an announced price: between $50 and $100 million,” he wrote in an e-mail message. The devil will be in the details of the obligations that a buyer would assume, he said, adding that “a buck essentially represents a gentleman’s agreement: I take a liability, headache and a distraction off your hands.” He said that the Times Company could hang on to some pension liabilities or other obligations in exchange for a higher purchase price, a number that would give the appearance that it was getting something for the more than $1 billion it paid 16 years ago. He added that no bank would be interested in financing a deal given how other deals have blown up, so “the owner’s own money is immediately at risk.”
  • Economist: It isn’t just newspapers: much of the established news industry is being blown away. Yet news is thriving
    Ken Doctor of Outsell, a research firm, reckons that the Kindle appeals to baby-boomers who would otherwise read a paper magazine or newspaper. The young prefer their iPhones and their aggregators. Indeed, the top four magazines on Kindle, according to Amazon’s website, are the New Yorker, Newsweek, Time and Reader’s Digest. Not much of a youth market there.
  • Forbes: San Diego News Shoot-Out
    "The Union-Tribune is cratering. That opens a hole in the market and the opportunity for some unconventional business models."
  • BizTimes.com: Journal Sentinel faces daunting choices
    “There’s no strategy – this is panic. What we’re likely to see this year (around the country) and what we’ll see in Milwaukee too is (publishers asking) how much they need to cut back and how much they can do to still hold their place in the market. For publishers, it’s about ‘How do we stay alive and stay profitable until we can get to some sort of breathing period?’ (Economic) recovery will not bring back their old business, but it will give them some breathing room.”
  • AP: Threat to shut Boston Globe shows no paper is saf
    The threat to close the paper "sends a very clear message to all employees and unions of surviving newspapers — that this is not business as usual. This is uncharted territory....Newspapers all "have a sword over their heads," said Doctor. If the industry wants to survive, he said, "everyone has to give some blood."
  • Guardian: Seattle mourns the last day of its venerable Post Intelligencer
    "There's a lot less reporting happening, on a national scale. For the 1,500 or so daily newspapers, it's just a matter of getting smaller and smaller."
  • Seattle Times: Seattle's oldest newspaper goes to press for the final time
    "They're bringing the full force of their national relationships and content to bear on Seattle. They [Hearst] could sustain this experiment indefinitely. If it makes a million or loses a million, that's nothing to a company like Hearst."
  • AP: Hearst hopes Web-only Seattle P-I will turn profit
    "It [online-only PI] definitely can make money. They have a head start in terms of the brand and (Web) traffic. They have to run like hell to create a new identity."

What's On My Netvibes

  • Steve Goldstein
    Fellow KR alumnus Steve Goldstein understands the research/info needs of end-use enterprise customers, and he's built a company that is helping satisfy them.
  • Peter Krasilovsky
    Centered on e-commerce of all kinds from Yellow Pages through classifieds and new ad models.
  • Mark Potts
    Mark Potts is an experienced journalist, observer of Internet journalism and an alumnus of the Backfence experiment.
  • John Blossom
    Thoughtful views on a wide-ranging mix of media change.
  • Jay Rosen
    Jay Rosen is a provocateur in the best sense, an NYU journalism professor deeply committed to keeping the press accountable and vibrant in the digital age.
  • David Meerman Scott
    David Scott understands web marketing of digital content. Check out his site and his new book, "Cashing In With Content"

My Work as an Outsell Analyst

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July 24, 2007

Bridgin': What About the Times?, PCM Cashes Out

What About the Times? The chill Rupert Murdoch sends through downtown New York is now blowing north toward the midtown HQ of the New York Times. The Times, too, has a two-tier shareholder system, with family controlling the company. But if Murdoch's super-sized offer could topple one two-tier system so unexpectedly, could it happen with the Sulzbergers and the Times?

That question has been on the lips of many watching the Dow Jones/News Corp saga, including New York Times reporters. Like all working journalists in the trade, they know the ground is shaking underneath the entire industry. What once seemed unshakable -- the Times itself -- now seems vulnerable, like so much of what we all have taken for granted.

So especially interesting is NYT Public Editor's Clark Hoyt's Sunday piece raising that question publicly and urging the Times to tell its own story. How does the Sulzberger family trust work? What are the Sulzbergers thinking? What's their plan to deal with continuing downturn of the industry?

It's time to ask the questions, get some insight and start a public discussion now, before the next trophy hunter pops up, unexpectedly.

What Bruce Sherman Hath Wrought:  Remember Bruce, whose PCM bought big into newspaper stocks and then embarked on a path to maximize value. He started with Knight Ridder. Unfortunately, when he huffed and puffed, Knight Ridder folded like a house of cards -- and PCM exited without a payoff.

Alan Mutter reports on how PCM has exited much of its newspaper holdings, and quoting Deutsche Bank's Paul Ginocchio to the effect that PCM's stock dumping is a reason that newspaper prices are in the dumper. How much in the dumper? They've lost $15 billion in market value since 2004.

I'm less convinced by that argument than I'd like to be. It seems to me that the three-to-five future we can see for print advertising is by far the largest driver of the share decline.

Still, the story of PCM and its outsized impact on the trade is astounding.

Par Excellence: Can't get enough of the Par Ridder saga? Try this spot-on parody Par blog.

July 24, 2007 in Bridgin', Daily Newspaper Companies, Knight Ridder, News and Democracy, News Corp/Dow Jones |

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