How Will Carol Bartz Feel About Consorting with the Press?

And now, putting shivers into executives and managers everywhere, the words, "let's do a reassessment."

It's as predictable as Claude Rains' Captain Renault in Casablanca. Instead of rounding up the usual suspects, thought, new Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will be rounding up the usual assessments. You know, what do we have?/what should we keep?/what should we get rid of? That's not a stack the newspaper companies want their hugely important Yahoo Consortium ad plans dropped onto. But, there's an inevitability to it.

The fact that Carol Bartz' first act was to announce that Sue Decker is out undoubtedly sent a shiver down newspaper spines. Decker and her protege Hilary Schneider, late of Knight Ridder Digital, have been the high-profile champions of the consortium. So after the Decker shoe dropped, the next one to look for is Schneider's. Golden slipper or Goodwill model? If she stays in place or ascends, the consortium can breathe easier. If she's gone soon herself, all bets are off.

Operationally, the project is in Vice President of US Partnerships Lem Lloyd's well-organized hands. Dozens of newspapers are finding some new gold in selling Yahoo inventory in their own markets. In addition, there are now more than three dozen sites up on the APT ad platform -- the first two (the Chronicle and Mercury News), Belo's four sites and a phalanx of North Carolina properties that are starting to bring the full bore of behavioral targeting to the Tar Heel State. Next up in March: the New York Times Regional Group, Media General, Lee, Journal Register, Philly, Paddock and the Columbus Dispatch. Then more into summer and fall. (Good take overall from Alan Mutter, and to the point of what's going on with local salesforces, Newsosaur.)

In total, Yahoo Consortium members account for about 40% of US newspaper circulation. So the Yahoo deal -- and much-anticipated Yahoo Bump is a big deal. It's one of the few growth stories newspaper companies have any hope of telling in a dismal 2009.

While early sales are good, Bartz is going to be asking the ROI question. With the dozens of Yahoo staffers building and supporting the newspaper consortium, how much ROI is in it -- compared to what else Yahoo could be doing with those resources, if it keeps those resources at all. 

Observers have already pointed out that Bartz has no background in advertising, in the Internet or in media, though her management credentials are well-attested to. Her lack of experience in advertising and media doesn't mean she doesn't appreciate them, but they are clearly not in her comfort zone. Curiously the consortium is a B2B ad play, and Bartz does know B2B, and maybe she takes Yahoo more in that direction. The newspaper consortium has turned out to be Yahoo's first big B2B play, and it has learned some hard lessons -- early uneven execution, the difficulties of dealing with diverse customers who each like it their own way.

Or maybe it's part ROI and part gut instinct. Maybe Bartz reads the (thinning) newspapers and decides that there's not a lot of upside in her company investing its resources heavily in association with what looks like a dying industry.

Yes, the dreaded reassessment, and it will come quickly. Despite her words -- "Yahoo has unfortunately been battered a lot in the last year. Let's give this company some friggin' breathing room." -- she knows the economic times don't provide much air.

Meanwhile, from Mountain View, Google waits, watches and drops 100 recruiters (leaving 300! in place),  understanding it missed a major opportunity to align its ad programs with newspaper companies more than a year ago and considers what it might do with a second chance.